AI Will Not Make You Rich

Absolutely riveting longread here from retired venture investor Jerry Neumann - AI Will Not Make You Rich. The disruption is real. It's also predictable.

The first two thirds of the piece give a lot of historical context to the waves of innovation we've seen over the last few hundred years and frames up some phases of innovation - Irruption, Frenzy, Synergy and Maturity. I realize in describing this it sounds extremely droll but I was riveted.

The final third tackles this idea:

Let’s grant that generative AI is revolutionary (but also that, as is becoming increasingly clear, this particular tech is now already in an evolutionary stage). It will create a lot of value for the economy, and investors hope to capture some of it. When, who, and how depends on whether AI is the end of the ICT* wave, or the beginning of a new one.

Now, I'm not smart enough or investor-minded enough to say what the answer to that question is but the position that Neumann puts forth is hard to argue with; we're in a maturity phase of technology and not in a phase with massive disruption. Tho, he does state that AI could lead to a new phase. I don't have concrete takeaways here, just an urging for you to go read it.

Comparing AI to the globalization of shipping containers was not something I thought I'd be riveted by but here we are. I think you'll enjoy. Link via jmsdnns.

*ICT = Information and communication technology